May to force cabinet into fresh Brexit compromise (the Times): T. May will hold an extended discussion on Brexit at the cabinet meeting on Tuesday to outline a compromise deal on the Irish border. The discussion is expected to include a commitment to keep the whole of the UK in an effective customs union with the EU after Brexit, but with a “clear process” of steps to exit. Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab, and Michael Gove are thought to be the key “swing voters” in cabinet. All 4 are backing T. May for now but believe that she may have to pivot to a Canada-style deal if the EU rejects Chequers again. However, some Brexiteers in government conceded that changing direction now would dramatically increase the chance of no-deal. Two sources said that Britain could be ready to concede that it would offer to follow EU social and environmental laws and possibly those on labour standards. However, some cabinet Brexiteers have suggested that they would resign over this.
IMF warns global economic stability at risk from no-deal Brexit (The Guardian): Echoing concerns from the Bank of England, the Washington-based organisation said the potential for millions of financial contracts between City banks and their counterparts across rest of Europe to collapse in the event of the UK leaving the EU without a deal was a major worry. The warning puts further pressure on the European Research Group (ERG) of Conservative MPs to justify a no-deal Brexit over a compromise negotiated by the prime minister that includes an agreement on cross-border financial contracts.
FCA steps up UK plans to prepare for hard ‘no-deal’ Brexit (FT): The Financial Conduct Authority laid out on Wednesday how it will ensure a smooth transition, even if there is a cliff-edge Brexit, through two hefty consultation papers. It said that in general it was making no big policy changes beyond what was needed to ensure a chaos-free continuity. As European agencies such as the European Securities and Markets Authority will no longer have jurisdiction over UK companies, the FCA is taking over supervision from Esma of certain sectors in the UK, including credit-rating agencies and trade repositories. The FCA has been responsible for the “lift and shift” of European rules into UK legislation so that, on the first day that the UK is out of the EU, the two regulatory systems will be identical. It said no broader policy changes were being proposed in Wednesday’s consultation papers, which close in December.
Up to 30 Labour MPs consider voting for Theresa May’s Brexit deal (FT): Mrs May’s hard Brexit opponents in the Tory party have hogged the limelight in recent months by threatening to vote down whatever withdrawal deal the prime minister agrees in Brussels. There has been much less attention on the Labour MPs who could hold the key to the prime minister getting her deal through the House of Commons. In the 2016 EU referendum, 10 Labour MPs voted for Brexit, including Kate Hoey, Graham Stringer and the now independent Frank Field. Since then about half a dozen of them have repeatedly voted alongside the Tories on Brexit legislation. Now they could be joined by many more colleagues, including former Remain supporters.
DUP threatens to vote against budget if May crosses Brexit red lines (The Guardian): The threat – which could in theory topple May, or even bring down the government – has not been made publicly, but was briefed to the BBC and Sky News by sources in the Northern Irish party. According to the reports, if the DUP feels May has given away too much at next week’s crunch meeting in Brussels, the party could withdraw the support of its 10 MPs for the vote on the budget, thus risking it being defeated. Traditionally, budget votes were seen as issues of confidence in a government, triggering a general election if one was lost. This is no longer the case under the fixed-term parliament act, but such a defeat could fatally undermine May’s position and would bring calls for a vote on calling an election.